Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure fears rise after Strait of Hormuz tensions threaten global trade routes

Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure fears are increasing after tensions in the Middle East raised concerns about another key sea route being disrupted.

The worries appeared after Iran warned about wider conflict in the region following reports about the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts now fear the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure fears could grow if Yemen’s Houthi group joins the conflict.

International media has been questioning whether the Houthis will enter the war and why the group has remained silent in recent days.

Reports quoting Houthi leader Abdul‑Malik al‑Houthi say their forces are fully ready. He reportedly said fighters have their “fingers on the trigger” and can act at any time if needed.

According to the Iranian news agency Fars News Agency, the Houthis and other groups allied with Iran are on high alert. They may join Iran if the conflict spreads further.

Experts say if the Houthis take part, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure fears could quickly become real. The strategic waterway connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, linking ships to the Suez Canal and then Europe.

Because of this route, the passage is vital for trade between Asia and Europe.

If the strait becomes unsafe or closed, ships may be forced to travel around Africa through the Cape of Good Hope. This would extend the usual Asia-Europe shipping journey from about 20–25 days to nearly 30–40 days.

Analysts say this change would increase transport costs and delay global supply chains.

Data shows about 12 percent of global trade passes through this route. Nearly 10 percent of seaborne oil and large volumes of liquefied natural gas also move through the strait.

In 2023 alone, about 8.8 million barrels of oil were transported daily through this corridor.

The Houthis have targeted ships in this area before. During the Gaza war 2023, the group carried out more than 100 attacks on commercial vessels.

Those attacks involved drones, anti-ship missiles and fast boats. Several global shipping companies later changed their routes to avoid the area.

Recently, major shipping firms started precautionary steps again. The Danish shipping giant Maersk has already suspended some services passing through the strait toward the Suez Canal due to security concerns.

Analysts say Iran and its allied groups may try to open several pressure points in the region against the United States and Israel.

These allies include Hezbollah, some Iraqi militias, Hamas, and the Houthis in Yemen. Iran often refers to these groups as the “Axis of Resistance.”

Experts warn that if both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb route face disruption, the global economy could suffer a major shock.

Together these two sea routes carry around 30 percent of the world’s seaborne oil and a large share of trade between Asia and Europe.

Energy experts say tensions have already pushed global oil prices higher. In the last two weeks, prices have increased by more than 40 percent.

If the Bab al-Mandeb Strait closure fears turn into reality, shipping costs and energy prices could rise further, creating new challenges for the global economy.