But whither the establishment?

By: Zohaib Niazi

It was Hegel who noted that all historical events occur twice. Marx’s correction, that they occur firstly as tragedy and secondly as farce, rings especially true for the events of the last four months. It was on April 10th that Imran Khan was deposed as Prime Minister by a vote of no-confidence. Not long after the 174 votes had been gathered by the opposition parties, Khan had alleged that efforts to remove him for the highest office in the country were part of a foreign conspiracy led by United States who were deeply unhappy with Khan’s visit to Russia. His claims were vindicated first in a decision by deputy speaker of the house Qasim Khan Suri who decided to dismiss the motion of the vote of no-confidence on grounds of foreign interference. In the absence of motion, Khan then advised President Arif Alvi to dissolve the National Assembly and move toward fresh elections. The Supreme Court’s unanimous decision on the unconstitutional nature of Suri’s decision gave a green light to the motion that ousted Khan and brough Shahbaz Sherif into power as PM unopposed.

The no-confidence vote was an undeniable victory for the opposition, for the time being. For reasons about which one could only speculate, the disastrously publicised relationship with General Faiz which was sure to ruffle the military’s feathers being one such reason, Khan had lost the favour of the establishment over the course of his tenure. The sun appeared to have set on Tehreek-e-Insaaf.

But Khan, once the darling boy of the establishment, emerged, as he had once intimated, as the closest thing to a populist leader in contemporary Pakistani politics. Rising petrol prices, rampant inflation, and increasing speculation about the country defaulting combined with PTI’s emphasis on foreign intervention to render true Khan’s claim; that he is more dangerous outside out of the seat of political power than he is in it. Perhaps the greatest shock in the entire saga was the smear campaign levelled against the military establishment. Overnight, comment sections were flooded with anti-army sentiment from the pro-PTI base, the hashtag #SurrenderBajwa trending with hundreds of thousands of posts. Such was the intensity of the hatred that the military seemed to be receiving that it was taken notice of at the 79th Formation Commanders’ Conference on April 12th under the chairmanship of General Bajwa himself.

Has Khan then cemented himself in Pakistani history as one of the great non-military leaders? One could certainly make that claim. Imran Khan was able to convince the masses of foreign interference with little more than a piece of paper to bolster his speech and tenacity. His illumination to the consequences of the IMF deals, the likes of which he himself had negotiated only a few months prior, has made the general public once again forget about the economic downturn that began during his tenure and that is only continuing to worsen under the PML-N.

PML-N’s greatest blunder came with the rise of Hamza Shahbaz to the seat of CM Punjab. Only a month after his ascension, the ECP found 25 PTI lawmakers of breaking with the party line. The by-elections granted PTI a landslide victory, returning Punjab back to Imran Khan. Despite Deputy Speaker of the House Dost Mazari’s ruling to annul 10 votes of PML-Q during the run-off elections on the basis of that they violated party lines, a ruling unanimously rejected by the Supreme Court, Chaudhry Pervez Elahi came to power as CM Punjab and Dost Mazari has been deposed as deputy speaker of the house.

PTI has maintained its vice grip on the political playing field while the once daunting alliance of opposition parties has seemed to have crumbled. But what is the end goal? For PTI, the best course of action seems to be immediate elections. With momentum aplenty, PTI may attempt to dissolve the Punjab assembly as fast as possible, resulting in the concomitant collapse of the National Assembly, and a snap election that by all metrics will give Imran Khan a 2/3rds majority, ushering in what I believe can be the third dynasty of Pakistani politics.

But whither the establishment? Do the petitions to extend General Bajwa’s tenure currently circulating mean that an agreement has been reached? All evidence points to that conclusion. But whether that will mean that Pakistan can prevent it’s slow March towards economic collapse, is another question all together.