Economic Survey 2024-25: Pakistan falls short of growth goals but demonstrates fiscal progress

KARACHI: The government of Pakistan is set to unveil the Economic Survey for the fiscal year 2024-25 on Monday, which will provide an overview of the country’s economic performance ahead of the federal budget.

Key economic targets including GDP and agriculture growth were not achieved, while official documents show improvements over the previous year with increases in industrial production and per capita income. Despite the unimpressive figures, in agriculture, the Economic Survey paints a cautiously optimistic picture of Pakistan’s economy, pointing to improvements in industrial performance, income levels and fiscal management.

GDP growth falls short of targe

According to official data, GDP growth for the fiscal year 2024-25 was recorded at 2.68 percent, well below the government’s target of 3.6 percent. However, this represents a marginal improvement over the previous year’s growth of 2.51 percent.

The agriculture sector continues to be a strong performer, and saw a sharp decline, growing by just 0.56 percent, in stark contrast to the 6.4 percent expansion reported in the previous fiscal year. In contrast, the industrial sector grew by 4.7 percent, up from 1.37 percent, while large-scale manufacturing grew by 1.53 percent.

The construction industry emerged as a key contributor to growth, growing by 6.61 percent, compared to just 1.14 percent in FY2023-24.

The size of Pakistan’s economy reached $411 billion, up from $372 billion last year. Per capita income increased to $1,824, up from $1,680 in FY2023-24.

The primary balance improved significantly, reaching Rs 3,469 billion during the July-March period, almost double the Rs 1,615 billion recorded last year. The budget deficit also narrowed to Rs 2,970 billion, or 2.4 percent of GDP, from 3.7 percent a year earlier.

Petroleum sales rose to 13.22 million tons from 12.4 million tons. Major decline in agricultural production. The survey highlighted a large-scale decline in the production of major crops.

• Wheat: ↓9.8% to 28.9 million tons
• Rice: ↓1.3% to 9.72 million tons
• Sugarcane: ↓3.8% to 84.2 million tons
• Cotton: ↓30.7% to 7 million bales
• Corn: ↓15.4% to 8.24 million tons
• Pulses: ↓14.1% to 29,658 tons

However, there were positive developments in some sub-sectors:

• Vegetable output increased by 7.1%
• Fruit production rose by 4.1%
• Fodder output, on the other hand, dropped by 1.8%