Monsoon 2025: ‘Severe weather conditions’ expected till July 8

ISLAMABAD – The National Emergency Operation Center (NEOC) of NDMA has issued multiple impact-based weather alerts for different parts of Pakistan in light of the forecast of severe weather conditions expected from July 2 to 8, 2025.

These alerts highlight the increasing risk of flash floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and urban flooding in different parts of the country.

Light to moderate rainfall is likely to continue till July 5, after which an active southwest monsoon system, accompanied by a westerly wave, is expected to enter the country, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall and localized thunderstorms.

The worst-affected areas are the upper catchments of major rivers including central and lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Azad Jammu and Kashmir and northeastern parts of Punjab, especially Lahore.

The forecast is expected to increase river flows across the country. In particular, the Kabul River at Nowshera is likely to rise due to the increase in its tributaries such as the Swat River, Panjkora, Bara, and Kalpani Nallah. The inflow of water into the Tarbela Dam may reach its lowest level. Flash floods in the riverine areas, especially where the nallahs and local rivers meet, may pose a threat to nearby settlements.

At the same time, the risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides has increased in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where the ongoing high temperatures have accelerated the melting of glaciers and snow. The situation has been further worsened by the incoming moisture currents and rains. Vulnerable glacial valleys and narrow mountain passes may face sudden GLOF events, flash floods, road blockages, and disruptions to infrastructure and tourism.

Read more: Pakistan weather update: PMD predicts another long spell of heavy monsoon rainfall across country

In Northeastern Punjab, including Lahore, Sialkot and Narowal districts, local streams such as Ek, Deg, Ben, Basantar and Pulko may overflow, causing water accumulation in low-lying areas and urban flooding. In DG Khan and Rajanpur, mountain streams may also become active, causing localised low-level flooding.

The NDMA has appealed to the public to take precautionary measures. Residents of the risk areas should avoid unnecessary travel, keep important belongings safe, and prepare for possible evacuation.

Tourists are advised not to visit high altitude and snowy areas during this period. Municipal and district administrations have been directed to prepare flood response teams, clean storm drains and drains and maintain rapid response capabilities.

Motorcyclists should avoid driving on flooded roads and underpasses which can be dangerous even at shallow water levels.