Tensions rise between India & Bangladesh ahead of elections

ISLAMABAD: Ties between India and Bangladesh, long considered close neighbors with deep cultural and historical ties, have deteriorated sharply amid political upheaval and upcoming elections in both countries. The tensions have escalated from diplomatic disputes to trade restrictions and even a potential sports boycott.

As per the details, the deterioration began after the 2024 ousting of Bangladesh’s former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who enjoyed strong backing from New Delhi. Hasina was removed from power by mass protests and subsequently fled to India, sparking criticism from Bangladesh’s interim government for India’s refusal to extradite her.

While now New Delhi, in turn, protested hostile remarks from Dhaka and incidents targeting Bangladesh’s Hindu minority. Recent unrest led India to suspend visa services in Chattogram, while Bangladesh reciprocated by halting visa operations for Indian citizens after protests at its New Delhi mission. The political tensions have spilled into sports, with the Indian Premier League barring a Bangladeshi player and Bangladesh withdrawing from the cricket World Cup in India, requesting a neutral venue.

Analysts say the tensions are further complicated by domestic politics in both nations. India is navigating a turbulent regional environment, balancing domestic priorities with its ambitions as a rising global power, while Bangladesh faces a governance vacuum following Hasina’s exit, rising extremism, and an identity crisis among its youth.

India’s historical support for Bangladesh’s independence in 1971 once gave it favored status in Dhaka. Over the years, New Delhi deepened economic ties, including agreements allowing Bangladesh to use Indian ports for transshipment. However, during Hasina’s 15-year rule, India’s close alignment with her increasingly unpopular government drew criticism amid her suppression of dissent, leaving India poorly positioned after her removal.

Bangladesh has scheduled parliamentary elections in February and has barred Hasina’s party from participating. Many candidates are leveraging anti-India sentiment as a campaign issue, alongside concerns over rising Islamic extremism. Interim leader Muhammad Yunus has struggled to maintain domestic support while managing relations with India. New Delhi has refused requests to extradite Hasina or restrict her party’s activities from India, while pro-government Indian media have criticized Yunus, alleging he supports extremists responsible for attacks on Bangladesh’s Hindu minority.

These attacks have become an election issue in India as well, particularly in West Bengal and Assam, which share borders with Bangladesh. Political leaders in these states have openly criticized Dhaka and called for strong action.

Despite the acrimony, both countries appear to be seeking ways to contain tensions. India is reportedly engaging with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), expected to perform well in February’s elections. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar recently attended the funeral of BNP leader Khaleda Zia and met her son Tarique Rahman, a potential future prime minister, but avoided meeting Yunus.

Experts warn that India must plan a long-term strategy for Bangladesh, considering the possibility that conservative parties like Jamaat-e-Islami could gain influence in the coming years, shaping the regional security and political landscape.