ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted a more active rain series over the next three months, with the strongest impact expected in the western and northwestern regions of the country.
According to the PMD, rain activity is likely to be high, especially in southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir, northern Balochistan and western Punjab, which may make the rain series relatively more active from the end of winter to early spring in these areas.
According to the Meteorological Department’s probabilistic analysis, a trend of above-normal rainfall is clearly seen in western and central Khyber Pakhtunkhwa as well as north to central Balochistan.
In contrast, rainfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Sindh and southern Balochistan is expected to be close to the general seasonal average, however, relatively low rainfall is expected in northern Gilgit-Baltistan during the same period.
The PMD says that this forecast has been prepared based on a joint analysis of eight global climate models from around the world. According to the department, major weather factors will not have a significant impact this season, with the Indian Ocean Dipole remaining neutral while El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) is likely to shift from a slightly negative to a neutral state and remain at the same level.
Along with the rains, the Meteorological Department has also predicted above-normal temperatures across the country, the impact of which can be felt the most in the northern regions. The PMD has warned that there will also be a risk of an initial heat wave during the dry spells during March and April.
