NDMA predicts weak La Niña in Pakistan in late 2025

ISLAMABAD: The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has predicted a weak La Niña in the last two months of the year.

Tayyab Shah, the NDMA’s Director of Risk Management, said that the forthcoming winter in Pakistan will have a below-average rain season than usual.

This trend will continue from November 2025 to January 2026, Shah said, while adding that the La Niña phase is expected to last three to four months.

According to Shah, the country’s core regions, including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and Kashmir, would get below-average rainfall, while winter showers and snowfall would be limited to the north.

Punjab may see normal temperatures, whilst the northern, southern, and western regions of the nation are likely to experience higher-than-average temperatures.

Shah stated that winds will approach Pakistan between December and April, bringing decreased humidity levels.

Due to the alteration in seasonal patterns, winter is now expected to peak in late January rather than December.

He stated that snowfall in Gilgit-Baltistan, Chitral, and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is projected to be 5-7% lower than typical, potentially impacting glacier health and water supply during the summer of 2026.

NDMA experts also stated that lower snowfall and restricted rainfall in Sindh and Balochistan might result in drought-like circumstances, although monsoon rains in 2025 and enough dam storage could help avert a catastrophic water crisis.

According to the authority, by late November, Siberian winds will send temperatures down over northern and central Pakistan, with northern parts expected to endure extreme cold in December.