ISLAMABAD: During September, October and November 2024, Pakistan is expected to experience more than normal rainfall and warmer than normal nights.
The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has predicted that the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will continue in a weak negative phase (weak La Nina). The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to continue in the neutral phase throughout the season.
Given the prevailing atmospheric conditions, the climatic outlook for Pakistan is as follows:
Seasonal Outlook (Rainfall): Normal to above-normal rainfall is likely across the country, with maximum positive departure over Northeast Punjab and Southeast Sindh.
In contrast, Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan may receive a slight shortfall, but still near-normal rainfall. Meanwhile, most of Balochistan is expected to receive slightly above-normal rainfall. Notably, the season is anticipated to start wetter, with a drier second half
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: Daytime temperatures are expected to be near-normal to slightly cooler than normal across the country, with a notable exception in Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan, where warmer-than-normal maximum temperatures are predicted.
In contrast, night temperatures are forecast to remain above normal across the country, with significant warm anomalies expected in northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and southwest Balochistan. These areas can expect significant departures from normal minimum temperatures during the season.
Implications: Satisfactory availability of soil moisture is expected for sowing of the upcoming Rabi crops. Favourable soil moisture conditions will support sowing of the upcoming Rabi crops, ensuring a satisfactory start to the season.
Availability of water will benefit standing Kharif crops, promoting healthy growth and development. However, isolated rain, hail, or wind may threaten Kharif harvesting activities, particularly in the northwestern regions, potentially leading to crop loss and damage.
Expected temperature and humidity conditions in major cities, especially in the central and southern regions, may create a favourable environment for dengue outbreaks during October and November, warranting public health preparedness.
Higher temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir may increase the chances of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) in these regions during September. Long dry spells during the season can lead to increased risk of fog and smog formation in plains, resulting in prolonged climatic drought conditions and associated impacts on air quality, visibility and human health.
